Bleak grain outlook

Prices are trending downwards, which is bad news for farmers, but provides some relief to beleaguered livestock farmers, says Dr Koos Coetzee.

- Dr Koos Coetzee

Grain markets and especially the wheat market was seriously disrupted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices soared to record levels. As Ukraine is the major supplier of sunflower, prices of the crop increased sharply. Sunflower import parity increased by more than R5 000/ t within a few weeks. As markets recover prices started to trend downwards.

The FAO cereals price index decreased by 17% from October last year to September this year. Vegetable oil prices fell by 21%. Indications are that future prices may decrease further.

In its latest Global Market Analysis, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a smaller wheat crop in the 2023/24 season than the record one harvested in 2022/23. Total supplies have fallen as lower production in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia are not fully covered by the higher US production.

Global trade is expected to decrease by 3%. Global stocks will likely reach the lowest level since 2015/16.

Internationally, prices quoted are lower as export competition from Russia, the EU and Ukraine increases.