Coming Summer Demand Will Test New Power

Bangladesh is experiencing one of the coldest winters in recent memory as the country heads toward a general election under universal adult franchise, scheduled on February 12, 2026.

- By Saleque Sufi

Ramadan fasting will begin in mid-February and coincide with the peak irrigation season, a combination that traditionally places additional pressure on electricity demand. During this period alone, power demand is expected to rise by about 2,500-3,000 MW. Summer will arrive by mid-April and intensify from mid-May, pushing demand even higher.

The upcoming government, expected to assume office in late February, will inherit a power and energy sector already under strain. There will be little scope for a honeymoon period. Coincident peak demand during the summer of 2026 may reach 18,500 MW, while the system's installed capacity, combining grid and off-grid sources, now exceeds 30,000 MW. Yet, despite this apparent surplus, it is widely understood that fuel supply constraints, particularly gas shortages and limitations on fuel imports, prevent the system from generating more than 15,000 MW consistently. Ensuring a reliable, quality power supply throughout the summer will therefore be one of the most formidable challenges facing the next government.

The interim government benefited from relatively favorable conditions during the summer of 2025. Peak demand remained within the range of 16,500-17,000 MW, and extreme heat waves were largely absent. Even then, rural areas experienced intermittent load-shedding, while power plants, fertilizer factories, and industries endured chronic gas shortages. Forecasts suggest that the upcoming summer may not be as mild, raising concerns that the stress on the power system will intensify significantly.

Present State of the Power and Energy Sector