India @2029: A Leading Global Power

The Narendra Modi years have seen India become an economic powerhouse. It is poised to become the third-largest economy very soon

- T.V. MOHANDAS PAI

Ten years of the NDA government from 2014 to 2024 will see India grow from a nearly $2-trillion economy to $3.7 trillion—an absolute growth of 95% at 7% CAGR in dollar terms despite Covid-19. Per capita income is $2,600. In rupee terms, nominal GDP has grown from ₹113 lakh crore in FY14 to an estimated ₹302 lakh crore in FY24—an absolute growth of 167% at 10.3% CAGR, again despite the global recessionary effects of the pandemic. This is an outstanding achievement; this period has recorded the best growth in India’s economic history. The nation is now officially a Top 5 economy on track to become a Top 3 economy by the end of 2026.

Highlights of the decade include transformative banking sector reforms, leading to low NPAs and clean balance sheets, far-reaching reforms in taxation, especially GST and I-T; the development of infrastructure on a scale never seen before in the country with significant investments in railways, airports, ports, and roads; an increased investment of $1 trillion in gross capital formation annually which amounts to over 31% of GDP, a step function elevation in India’s global standing; services sector exports reaching $400 billion by 2024 with surpluses of $220 billion; foreign exchange reserves of $600 billion; the start-up sector growing to $550 billion of value with 109 unicorns; and universal digital and financial inclusion with the development of the IndiaStack.

THE STAGE IS SET FOR INDIA TO ACCELERATE ITS GROWTH. OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (FROM 2024 TO 2029), INDIA'S GDP IS ESTIMATED TO REACH $5.6 TRILLION