Impact of vital Atlantic current collapse

The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded.

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The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It transports relatively warm upper-ocean water to the north, where it sinks and returns as cold, deep water to the South Atlantic.

Earlier reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that an abrupt collapse of the Amoc before 2100 was 'very unlikely (i.e. less than 10% probability in IPCC language)'. However, there is now 'medium confidence that there will not be an abrupt collapse before 2100', says the 6th IPCC report.

A study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, highlights that unless carbon emissions are drastically lowered, scientists are concerned to find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing to a self-amplifying feedback.

Meteorologist and sailor Chris Tibbs, author of the RYA