Covid-19 - When Will It End?

Most countries have adopted the ‘flatten the curve’ model to fight COVID-19 but the end is not yet in sight

- Vibha Varshney

Every country is fighting COVID-19 but with varying degrees of success. While some, like South Korea, have contained it to a great extent, countries like Italy have witnessed high mortality. No country has been able to say when it would end.

Most countries are trying to “flatten the curve” and reduce the number of cases by using methods such as social distancing. While this helps avoid overburdening of the health system, it spreads the cases over a long period. Other methods like increasing “herd immunity” where the disease is allowed to take its natural course and infect a large proportion of people have been rejected. In absence of vaccines, this can not only burden the health system, mortality would be high. In talks is “managed herd immunity” in which only the people at risk are quarantined. Researchers at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, have developed a mathematical model in March 2020 to help countries decide whether their health infrastructure can take the load of sudden increase in cases.