THE NEW GUYS

TALIBAN The US has left, and the Taliban must switch from fighting an insurgency to administering an entire country again. How will the group respond – and what now lies in store for Afghanistan’s beleaguered people?

- Emma Graham-Harrison

On Tuesday, the last US troops left Kabul and the day had broken on a country entirely controlled by the Taliban, the last shadow of American threat banished.

It is still uncertain what this second iteration of the caliphate will look like, but with foreigners finally gone, the shape of the new Afghanistan will come into sharper focus.

The Taliban have made clear they want to avoid a repeat of their 1990s rule when they presided over an international pariah state, mismanaged the economy and increased repression as discontent spread. What is less clear is whether they can achieve that, or how they will attempt it.

The pivot from fighting an insurgency to managing the government was always going to be difficult, and the Taliban have had less time to prepare than they expected. The speed with which Kabul fell caught even the Taliban by surprise, co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has admitted, and it is clear the group had not yet pinned down who would rule, and how.

“They are so slow. I assume they have to announce a government when the Americans leave, but it’s really taking a long time and has potential to spin out of control,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the centre for the study of armed groups at the Overseas Development Institute, who has researched the Taliban for many years. “Particularly with the threat from IS [Islamic State] attacks, they have to show they are strong and can guarantee security.”

Last week’s IS suicide attack at Kabul airport, which is known to have killed nearly 200 people, including 13 US service members, underlined the security challenges the Taliban will face. They have offered in the past – and are offering again – a respite from the horrors of war, as justification for their harsh rules.