Modi Best Bet But NDA Govt Losing Sheen

THE INDIA TODAY-Karvy Insights biannual Mood of the Nation Poll 2020, conducted seven months after the Lok Sabha election, reveals that if voting was held today the ruling National Democratic Alliance could lose 54 seats (50 as against its general election tally) on account of a decline of 4 per cent vote share since August 2019 — when the MOTN was last conducted.

- Ajit Kumar Jha

This is because of the Shiv Sena quitting the NDA alliance and a general sense of anti-incumbency beginning to kick in because of a slowdown in the economy. Protests across the country against the Citizenship Amendment Act-National Register of Citizens and National Population Register are also a factor. This decline is likely to cause the BJP a loss of almost 37 seats in key states with a 2% decline in vote share, as compared to August 2019.

The UPA would end up with 108 seats and 29% vote share, while the ‘Others’ (neither in NDA nor in UPA) are likely to get 132 seats with 30% vote share. The losses for the NDA are mainly in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. The BJP would end up with 271 seats and the Congress with 60.