EXPERT ANALYSES- US-IRAN STAND DOWN: RISKS FOR INDIA IN CASE OF ESCALATION

Prospects of war in the Gulf have receded after both US and Iran stood down.

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But this may not mark the end of the engagement. The fear of escalation of the conflict remains a possibility. India is delicately poised at this critical juncture. West Asia is a tricky place and all is certainly not well. India needs to keep its finger on the pulse of the present conflict, even as it seeks to find ways to help build bridges that enable further de-escalation.

The scenario however, looked very different a few days ago and Indian diplomacy moved in top gear. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar was in Tehran on 5 January holding talks with his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif. Jaishankar has also made stops at Oman and the UAE and had talks by telephone with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The Minister noted that “developments have taken a very serious turn”. In the conversation with Pompeo, Jaishankar highlighted India’s stakes and concerns in the region amid the spiralling US-Iran tensions.

FALLOUT ON STRATEGIC PORT AT CHABAHAR

The developments alarmed India due to the possible fallout on its strategic port development project at Chabahar in Iran, which provides sealand connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.

Escalation in tensions could further scare Indian private companies, who are part of the Chabahar port project due to a possible adverse impact on their investments and any possible economic punitive steps that the United States may take in the coming days on foreign companies investing in Iran. India is in a tight spot now as it has excellent relations with both Iran and the United States.