THREE MORE YEARS

THE BJP WON 19 OF THE 28 SEATS THAT WENT TO THE POLLS; THE CONGRESS WON JUST NINE

- Rahul Noronha

The BJP’s emphatic win in the byelections to 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh has smoothed the way for the saffron party’s rule in the state for the next three years. The party won 19 of the 28 seats that went to the polls, more than every survey, official or unofficial, had predicted, and more than what the BJP itself had projected. On the other hand, the Congress fared worse than surveys predicted, falling far short of its farfetched hope of returning to power, winning just nine seats. Between these over-and-under-achievements lies the story of MP’s biggest byelections in recent times, necessitated by the defection of 25 Congress MLAs to the BJP since March this year.

Regionwise, the byelections could broadly be seen as taking place in two areas—MP’s Gwalior-Chambal (GC) region, where 16 of the 28 seats are located, and the rest of the state. The BJP did moderately well in the GC region, taking nine of the 16 seats there, and spectacularly outside it, taking 10 of the 12 seats. The Congress did well in a handful of areas—winning four of the seven seats in Morena and Bhind districts, two of three seats in Gwalior and one of two in Shivpuri. The party’s poll plank—campaigning against the gaddari (disloyalty) of the defecting MLAs—did not find much resonance in other areas. Just three of the 14 ex-Congress MLAs who had been given ministerial berths in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government after defecting to the BJP—Adal Singh Kansana, Imarti Devi and Girraj Dandotiya—lost their elections. The BJP’s strength was visible even in the GC region: it won the Ashok Nagar, Bamori and Mungaoli seats, which are geographically close to Bhopal. The