Against The Clock

Tech pundits say the Apple Watch is a flop, but Apple begs to differ – so who’s telling the truth?

- Alex Blake

Read almost any tech website’s coverage of the Apple Watch and a familiar story emerges. It’s a failure. No one wants to buy one. It was a huge mistake on Apple’s part, a gamble that hasn’t paid off and should simply be shelved. You get the idea. This narrative is persistent and near-universal. But is it true? We decided to take a look at the numbers to see whether the Apple Watch really is in a slump, and what can be done by Apple if it is.

It’s not hard to see why people might think the Apple Watch is struggling – almost the entire wrist wearable industry is still trying to find its feet. Former giants are falling left, right and centre. In 2014, Nike abandoned its Fuel Band wearable. Jawbone is going out of business. Samsung and LG have given up. Even Pebble, which more or less kicked off the entire smartwatch craze, has been bought by Fift bit after incurring huge debts. Right now, this is an industry that may be best described as ‘chaotic’.

So why have these companies struggled so much in an industry that was once seen by many as a potential goldmine? Well, it may be a classic example of the Gartner hype cycle, named for the market research firm that first proposed it. The cycle describes the hype that surrounds new technology. First comes the peak of inflated expectations, soon followed by the trough of disillusionment as a number of players falter and collapse. Then comes the slope of enlightenment and, eventually, the plateau of productivity. It is likely that the hype peak drew in companies that simply weren’t able to compete, and have failed as a result. Apple though? That’s a different story.

A different approach