Daring The Third Wave

The equity market boom is based on strong fundamentals. Aided by a rapid vaccination drive and economic recovery, India is unlikely to be wounded badly even if Covid breaks out again.

- Manik Kumar Malakar

A third wave of the Covid pandemic looms large on India with speculation going rife that the onslaught is expected in a month or two. With its 66 per cent eligible population being vaccinated, the authorities seem more confident this time to fight the pandemic, but fears run high among people about yet another round of lockdown and disruption of social and financial life.

Fast recovery in economic parameters and a booming equity market seem to be soothing the frayed nerves of the investors and also allaying fears of a fresh financial bloodbath. “Even if the third wave hits India in the next couple of months, we don’t see a correction of over 5-6 per cent in the markets as the economy is doing well,” says Shrikant Chouhan, executive vice-president, equity research, Kotak Securities Ltd.

Another positive is that India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day, as per the July average, with the objective of inoculating the entire adult population (approximately 188 crore doses) by December 2021.

“I don’t see the markets correcting due to the third Covid wave. Remember, we did not see the third wave impacting market sentiments in the US and the UK,” says Sunil Damania, chief investment officer, MarketsMojo. He adds that (equity) markets never correct twice for the same reason.

There is the recent precedent of the second wave among market-watchers for this bout of confidence. “If one looks at the impact of the second wave on the market, it was fairly muted, with a correction of 5-7 per cent initially. It recovered over the next couple of months,” says Dhaval Kapadia, director, managed portfolios, Morningstar Investment Adviser India.