Middle Class Wants Meat, But The Rich Want Alternatives

The latest 10-year agricultural outlook by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicts that income growth in middle-income countries will see consumers transform their diets from staples to higher-value products, such as fats and animal-based protein. Meanwhile, environmental and health concerns in high-income countries are expected to support a transition from animal-based protein towards alternative sources.

- Denene Erasmus

Over the coming decade, an expanding global population will remain the main growth factor driving food demand, although the consumption profiles and projected trends vary depending on the development status of individual countries. Population is the key determinant of total food use. However, income, relative prices, other demographic factors, consumer preferences and lifestyles, meanwhile, determine a person’s desired food basket. On account of an expected 11% expansion in the global population between 2019 and 2029, as well as notable gains in per capita income in all regions, total consumption of food is expected to rise 15% by 2029, as measured on a calorie basis.

SHIFTS IN PROTEIN DEMAND

According to the ‘Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029’, per capita food expenditure will expand globally, but will decline as a share of income, most significantly in middle-income countries, due to the increase of per capita income in these countries.

In terms of consumption per category, the highest growth rate is projected for fats at 9%. Due to the ongoing transition in global diets towards higher consumption of animal products, fats and other foods, the share of staples in the food basket is projected to decline by 2029 for all income groups.