Going it alone Nato leaders fear they can no longer rely on US help if Russia attacks

Trump 2.0 has changed the game across eastern Europe

- Shaun Walker

A nightmare scenario has been playing on eastern European minds with increasing intensity since Donald Trump returned to the White House: what if Russia attacks and the Americans don’t join the fight?

On the rare occasions when the question is posed out loud, nobody much likes the answer.

At a gathering in Tallinn, Estonia, last month, the US undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, Thomas DiNanno, was asked directly if American troops would fight were Russia to invade the Baltic states. He shifted uncomfortably, then gave a meandering answer. It did not include the word “yes”.

Politicians from the region usually try to sidestep the issue in public, claiming Washington’s commitment to its Nato allies remains strong and the alarming rhetoric from the Trump administration should not be taken to heart.

“We shouldn’t pour fuel on the fire” is a mantra repeated in interviews by ministers from several countries on the eastern flank, where the proximity to Russia infuses security debates with extra intensity.

Others admit that things are fraught between Europe and the US but say a break in relations is out of the question because the security gaps would be unbridgeable.

Dovilė Šakalienė, a former Lithuanian defence minister, compared the relationship to “a dysfunctional family where divorce is not an option”.

In private, informal conversations are taking place in whispers. What would the response to a Russian attack look like if the Americans didn’t show up? Should Europe be doing everything to keep Trump onside or instead be drawing up plans in the event Washington does not come through? And will Vladimir Putin look at the current unease in Nato and decide it is the perfect time to test the alliance’s resolve?