FEB INFLATION FORECASTS RANGE FROM 2.2% – 3.1%

INFLATION for February is forecast to climb past 2 percent for the first time in 12 months on the back of rising oil and selected food prices, especially given low base effects from the comparative year-earlier levels.

- RUELLE CASTRO

In a weekend advisory, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said February inflation likely settled within 2.3 to 3.1 percent, citing higher prices of rice and fish, elevated domestic petroleum prices, and increased electricity charges.

“These pressures, however, may be partly offset by lower prices of vegetables, fruits, and meat, as well as [the] peso appreciation,” the BSP said.

Private economists separately see the range at between 2.2 percent and 3.0 percent, slightly lower than the BSP’s estimates.

Over the weekend, several analysts agreed with the BSP that despite the higher prices of rice, utilities and petroleum, the lower costs of other food items will cushion the effect on overall inflation.

Most February predictions surpass January's actual rate of 2 percent, which was already viewed as elevated due to the higher prices of food and energy. The January 2026 rate was up from 1.8 percent in December 2024, but down from 2.9 percent in January 2025.

The government will announce the February inflation rate on March 5.

Oil as key risk

Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Service (eMBM), said oil is the key external risk in February as prices go up amid tensions in the Middle East, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and OPEC+ supply restraint, alongside signs of steadier global demand.