Uncertainty of monsoon continues to haunt India

Call it the whims of the monsoon. Meteorological scientists will show that there is some method behind the whims.

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This year the rains began on May 24 over Kerala, easily a week earlier than the usual date. Naturally, it caused a flutter all around. There was a sigh of relief that the gruelling summer had ended. In many places, with a few exceptions of above normal temperatures, it has been a bearable summer, even a short one in many ways. The economic analysts in the Reserve Bank of India, in the think tanks, and within and outside the government were happy too because it assured that the above normal - not necessarily connected with the early onset - monsoon would mean good agricultural growth, including higher foodgrains output.

Government figures (National Accounts Statistics) show that the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of the economy was 6.5 per cent between 2014-15 and 2019-20, and the share of agriculture, forestry and fishing was 4.7 per cent, compared to industry's 5.6 per cent and the services sector's 7.4 per cent. And in the 2014-15 to 2023-24 period (R. Ramkumar of the School of Developmental Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai took the two periods of comparison keeping in the Covid-19 pandemic interruption of 2020-21, 2022-23), the GVA growth of the economy was five per cent, and the contribution of agriculture was 4.5 per cent, of industry 4.7 per cent and of the services sector 4.7 per cent.

Agriculture is a key factor in the growth rate of the economy. The Economic Survey 2023-24 noted that agriculture contributes 16 per cent of GDP and supports 46.1 per cent of the population.