The huge problems piling up for Welsh Labour ahead of Senedd election

The relationship with their UK Government colleagues, the rise of Reform and Plaid Cymru's polling success are just three of the challenges faced by the party as the clock ticks down to voting day, says Prof Laura McAllister

- Prof Laura McAllister

WALES, for the first time in a quarter of a century, is not the political outlier.

The marking of a year to go until the Senedd elections was probably not on the radar of most people in Wales. Understandable, yet the election in May 2026 promises to be transformative and will be subject to political forces rippling across countries all over the world.

Moreover, and significantly, the degree of public engagement and eventual turnout, as well as the extent of proper scrutiny of what comes out of the mouths of politicians will likely determine the outcome and shape of who represents us in the new Senedd.

Regrettably, and more than ever, politics is now polarised into us and them; binary debates, often conducted in a simplistic, policy-lite environment; presidential in style, with personality and social media reach dominant factors. Never mind the quality or competence, feel the populism. Is he or she 'someone you'd like to have a pint with' even?!

While understandable after years of shambolic global leadership, this is problematic at a time when the most important personality traits for delivery in office remain proper values and a commitment to public service, along with competence, calmness and consistency. The recent election verdicts of the Americans, Canadians and Australians reflect the powerful, opposing twin forces that voters are navigating.

Our next national election is going to be a game-changing one. 96 seats across 16 unfamiliar mega-constituencies up for grabs in an enlarged Welsh Parliament. Members elected using a tightly party-controlled, closed-list PR system the compromise forced on reformers. A system which on the one hand is more proportional, but one which also requires a threshold of between 12 (or even higher) percentage of votes cast to win any representation in Cardiff Bay.