Heat deaths could rise up to 50-fold by 2070s due to climate change - study

As a third heatwave grips parts of the UK this weekend, a new report warns that heat-related deaths could soar over the next 50 years. Emily Beament reports

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HEAT-RELATED deaths in Wales and England could rise up to 50-fold in the next 50 years as an ageing population is hit by dangerous climate change, a study warns.

The warning comes as parts of the UK face a third heatwave in a month pushing temperatures above 30°C, adding to concerns over the rising impact of the “silent killer” of extreme heat as climate change worsens.

Experts are calling for efforts to adapt homes and cities to the threat of extreme heat, with measures ranging from green roofs and shady urban forests to better building ventilation, air conditioning and more support for vulnerable people.

Scientists have already estimated that the first heatwave in late June was made 100 times more likely because of climate change, and the second was 2-4°C hotter and tripled deaths across 12 European cities, including London, as a result of global warming.

Now, a new study from scientists at University College London (UCL) and The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) warns annual heat-related deaths are set to climb into the thousands or even tens of thousands over the coming decades.

The annual number of deaths from heat could soar from today's baseline of 634 to as many as 10,317 in the 2050s and 34,027 in the 2050s under a worst-case scenario, with 4.3°C of warming and minimal efforts to adapt to rising temperatures.

Even under the most optimistic scenario limiting temperature rises to 1.6°C of warming from pre-industrial levels and major efforts to adapt to the changing climate the annual number of deaths are projected to rise to 3,007 a year by the 2050s and up to 4,592 a year in the 2070s.