Unpredictability has been key for Ford

Doug Ford’s enduring popularity is a peculiarity.

- MARTIN REGG COHN

Despite the disdain of so many, Ontario’s premier dominates the public opinion polls and defies expectations in byelections.

Why is Ford so strangely immune to the midterm decline so typical and predictable for any politician — let alone a leader savouring his second term in power? How does a premier who keeps losing face and executing about-faces still stay in the good graces of his supporters?

A survey published in the Star this week shows his Progressive Conservative government still well out in front. In fact, the numbers from Abacus Data show higher positive ratings for Ford than for his opposition rivals (albeit higher negatives, too).

Much of Ford’s re-election victory in 2022 can surely be attributed to the ebbing popularity of his political rivals. Yet both opposition parties now have new, able leaders in place — the NDP’s Marit Stiles and the Liberals’ Bonnie Crombie — with little apparent traction to date.

Beyond the numbers, consider the premier’s latest byelection triumphs, in which the Tories won two out of two. By way of disclaimer, I’d normally ignore the polls or byelections in between Ontario’s general elections, because they typically attract protest votes from people who want to punish the party in power without necessarily forcing a change in government.