Experts sound alarm over potential strike or lockout

Work action would lead to a ripple effect, grinding the economy to a halt

- JOSH RUBIN

A rail strike in Canada would shut down ports like Vancouver and would spread throughout the economy, say supply chain experts. Canada’s railways ship about $380 billion worth of goods a year. That’s about 18 per cent of Canada’s $2.14-trillion economy.

A strike or lockout in Canada’s rail industry could devastate auto and agricultural sectors and lead to empty store shelves heading into the busy holiday shopping season, say supply chain experts, economists and retail analysts.

More than 9,000 workers at CN Rail and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) could be off the job as soon as 12:01 a.m. Thursday. Both companies are in negotiations with the Teamsters union.

The effects would be felt across the country within days, said Fraser Johnson, a supply chain expert and professor at Western University’s Ivey School of Business.

“If there’s a lockout or strike on Thursday, you’re going to see the ripple effects throughout the economy very quickly,” said Johnson, noting that 50 per cent of Canada’s exports travel by rail at some point. “The ports will shut down. Plants will shut down — the automotive plants, forestry product plants, will all be impacted, and then we’ll start to hear about problems in the agricultural sector as the crops start to come off the fields.”

Switching to trucks isn’t really an option because of the sheer volume of goods being shipped, Johnson added.