WHAT KIND OF CHANGE IS COMING TO IRAN?

It is now evident that the Islamic Republic is in profound distress, exposed once again as lacking not only democratic legitimacy but even basic governing competence.

- JOHN DOBSON

Body bags lay piled across Iran, from Kurdistan in the west to Baluchistan in the east and as far south as the refinery town of Abadan.

No region was spared. An Iranian official told Reuters that more than 2,000 people had been killed during 839 protest incidents nationwide, while insisting that “terrorist protesters were to blame.” Thousands more were arrested. Sources within Iran's opposition circles claim the true death toll among protesters is far higher, possibly reaching 10,000, which—if verified—would make this the bloodiest crackdown in the Islamic Republic's history. Human rights organisations and independent observers, however, place responsibility squarely on Iran's security forces. Police units, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Basij militias were seen using live ammunition, shotgun pellets, tear gas and water cannons against largely peaceful demonstrators. Many victims were shot in the head, with eyes a frequent target.

The unrest followed a summer marked by chronic water shortages and electricity outages. By December, the national currency was in free fall, while runaway inflation pushed food prices up by more than 70 percent year-on-year—outcomes of mismanagement, corruption and sanctions that the revolutionary oligarchy has knowingly courted and, in some cases, exploited for profit. Significantly, the first protests on 28 December were not led by hijab-discarding young women of the kind who spearheaded the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement in autumn 2022. Instead, this wave of anger erupted among the revolution's traditional supporters: ageing, religiously conservative bazaar traders whose shops stood empty amid economic collapse. Within days, demonstrations spread to all 31 provinces and snowballed into a mass movement, drawing in not only unemployed youth but also middle-class Iranians who had largely stayed home during previous upheavals.