India has tamed Maldives, but must tread with caution

Maldives may have stepped back from the ledge, but it hasn't fully abandoned its risky dance with China.

- SAVIO RODRIGUES

There is a quiet satisfaction in New Delhi's corridors of power. After all the noise, chest-thumping nationalism, and "India Out" sloganeering that echoed from the archipelago of Maldives, the tune has changed. And how. President Mohamed Muizzu, the very man who built his political rise on anti-India rhetoric, is now softening his stance, sending conciliatory signals, and reaching out to the very nation he vilified.

It's tempting to see this as a diplomatic victory—and in many ways, it is. India, through its calibrated and restrained diplomacy, has managed to tame the Maldivian wolf that momentarily tried to howl against the regional giant. But India must not mistake this calm for a conclusion. This is not the end of the game—this is merely a pause in a more complex and long-drawn chess match. Maldives may have stepped back from the ledge, but it hasn't fully abandoned its risky dance with China.

THE MYTH OF 'INDIA OUT'
Let us first understand the farce that was the "India Out" campaign. It wasn't a spontaneous eruption of nationalist sentiment in Maldives. It was a carefully curated narrative pushed by vested political interests, with China's fingerprints all over it. Muizzu's campaign was never truly about sovereignty or military overreach. It was about aligning Maldives with the strategic objectives of China, the new imperialist disguised as an infrastructure partner.

Beijing has long eyed the Indian Ocean region as its next arena of influence. It has tried, tested, and succeeded in several smaller nations—Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and to some extent, even Nepal. Maldives was a juicy prize. Control of its ports, maritime routes, and diplomatic loyalty could provide China with a powerful geopolitical lever against India. When Muizzu took office, it wasn't just a political transition—it was the opening act of a Beijing-scripted drama.

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