Why Asia should worry about a G-l world as China's power grows

Trumpian policies are corroding US strength. In a world run on raw power, the question is how will China treat others in pursuit of its own interests?

- Ravi Velloor

Mr Donald Trump's frequent references to a Group of Two (G-2) ahead of his summit meeting in October with his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping one that involves just the US and China - has triggered angst in Asian middle powers, amid a time of declining US influence. Several other Asian states that have their own views of the world, and their place in it, are uneasy as well.

Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, the eminence grise of Japan's Conservative movement and the former foreign policy adviser to the Shinzo Abe Cabinet, describes a potential "G-2" world order as a "nightmarish" scenario. Tokyo, he told me, "does not want to have (that happen) at any cost because under those circumstances, it would mean that Japan would become an integral part within the Chinese sphere of influence". Indian officials are similarly alarmed.

I would not worry too much. As Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told a global forum in Singapore last week what is on view is perhaps more of a tactical pause than strategic realignment. The fundamental lack of trust between the US and China is deep, and possibly growing.

That said, there is another way of looking at the shifting power dynamics. Instead of seeing things through a G-2 lens, we may want to ask ourselves: Is it time to think of a 'G-1', and what that would mean for Asia? In other words, what happens when China wins?

The Lowy Asia Power Index 2025 released on Nov 26 unequivocally states that the US is losing ground in Asia, recording its lowest ever score in the index. It goes on to say that the Trump administration's policies have been "a net negative for US power in Asia", but their true effect will only be felt in the years ahead. As the former NATO official Jamie Shea put it recently, the US is on a path of "soft power suicide" thanks to Mr Trump.

THE TECH JUGGERNAUT