West failed to grasp sheer anger in Iran over defeat of Hezbollah

Tehran upped the ante this time as it saw its credibility as a regional power at stake

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON – Israel's top security officials are locked in urgent negotiations with their United States counterparts over their response to the approximately 180 ballistic missiles that Iran fired at the Jewish state during the late hours of Oct 1.

Although the bombardment inflicted no casualties, a heavy Israeli retaliation is now guaranteed. Soon after the Iranian missiles were fired, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that "Iran made a grave mistake" and "will pay the price".

But which targets Israel should hit in its retaliatory strike and what may happen should the Iranians respond with further attacks are topics now being hotly debated by Israel and the US.

There are, however, two certainties: More violence lies ahead, and the dangers of a wider regional war in the Middle East are increasing exponentially.

This is not the first time Israel and Iran have come to direct blows. Iran fired around 300 different projectiles at Israel on April 14 in retaliation for an earlier Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic mission in neighbouring Syria.

Yet, back in April, the Iranians seemed to go out of their way to avoid a prolonged confrontation. They used less potent missiles. And soon after these were fired, Iran signalled through diplomatic channels that it did not intend to prolong their confrontation.

Matters are quite different now. The latest bombardment consisted almost exclusively of the more deadly Iranian-produced Shahab ballistic missiles, some of which have a range of over 2,000km, carrying an explosive payload of at least 750kg.

And unlike the April attack, there is no Iranian suggestion that the current use of force is a one-off event. Should Israel and the US choose to retaliate, “their centres and interests in the region will also face a powerful attack", read a warning from the Iranian armed forces' general staff issued in the early hours of Oct 2.