Tehran might have some surprises in store as US hopes of a swift victory fade

News analysis

- Borzou Daragahi

Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree engulfed in smoke near the Strait of Hormuz on March 11 after an attack, as seen in a photo released by the Royal Thai Navy. Iran's warnings to ships have already choked off almost all commercial traffic in and out of the waterway.

(PHOTO: AFP)

The US and Israel claim that they have established air supremacy over Iran, giving them a clear-cut path to attack and spy unfettered as they pursue a war meant to weaken the country or topple the government.

Israel claims it has destroyed 75 per cent of Iran’s missile launch sites, and that the number of missiles launched from Iran has decreased from 200 a day to only a couple of dozen.

Yet, according to news reports coming from the region, Iran’s drones and missile attacks continued over the weekend. Iran destroyed water treatment and energy facilities in Bahrain in response to Israeli and American attacks on similar sites in Iran.

Israel’s heavily censored news reports acknowledged “significant” hits on cities, including Tel Aviv, on March 8 and 9. Meanwhile, war monitors such as Jason Chen have detected an increase in Iranian drone swarms and missile launches after the ninth day of the war.

“Sometimes it’s not even a barrage,” Israeli Lieutenant-Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters in a conference call on March 9, noting that the missile launches could be as small as just one or two missiles.

“They want to maintain a cycle where the Israeli civilians are going to the safe rooms. They know we have sirens, we have safe rooms. They know our policy, and so they’re trying to terrorise the Israeli civilians,” he said.

The US’ hopes of a quick offensive to topple the Iranian regime seem to have been crushed. With the war dragging into a second week, there is little reason to believe it will end quickly or decisively.