A Korea hostile to US and Japan? Yoon's martial law blunder opens the door

A liberal political party, wary of the US, may win the South Korean presidency and totally alter the country's foreign relations.

- Denny Roy

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's abortive attempt on Dec 3 to impose martial law has serious ramifications for the country's domestic politics, and may also lead to an early reorientation of its foreign relations. By the end of 2025, we might see a coincidence of national leaders in Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul who all want American troops out of South Korea.

Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) paramount leader Kim Jong Un is the constant in this group. Getting US forces off the Korean peninsula has been a major objective of the Kim family since the Korean War (1950-1953), and is consistent with the minimum DPRK aim of regime survival and the maximum goal of gaining control over the South.

Mr Yoon, meanwhile, has destabilised politics in the Republic of Korea (ROK). His presidential term would normally have finished in 2027. But his flirtation with martial law has fatally wounded his legitimacy. If the Constitutional Court rules in Mr Yoon's favour, he could stay in office but with his effectiveness highly compromised. In that case he might follow the advice of some of his allies and resign sometime this year. If the court upholds the legislature's motion to impeach Mr Yoon, South Korea will have a new president within eight months.

The next president will probably be a politician from the opposition Democratic Party (DP), and most likely its leader Lee Jae-myung, who barely lost to Mr Yoon in the last presidential election. Mr Lee is himself under indictment for alleged crimes when he was a mayor and provincial governor, but he could still take office if elected before a guilty verdict is announced against him. Either Mr Lee or another DP member ascending to the presidency would have major implications for South Korea's foreign policy.