Demographic Winter

As 0f 2025, seniors over theageof 60 years makeup 11percentof India’'spopulation. But numbers ofsuchseniors are goingup rapidly owingto improvedlife expectancy. After 2050, the only populationgroup expected to grow continuouslyis that of people above theageof 60. Nodoubt, thegrowthinthe elderly peoplewilldrive the rise inIndia's dependency ratio. Theapprehended situation signals adeepening demographicwinter

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here is a longstanding debate on how population growth affects national economies. In a seminal 2003 book, the Harvard economist and demographer David E. Bloom coined a term “Demographic Dividend” to refer to a boost in economic growth that a country with a large share of its population in the working age can expect to benefit from, provided the right policies are in operation. The term indicates a new perspective on the economic consequence of population change. The term is now widely used in demographic, economic and public policy discussions. In the words of our Prime Minister: “Our demographic dividend is our strength”.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Demographic Dividend (DD) is defined as “the economic growth potential that can arise from changes in a population's age structure, particularly when the working-age population (15 to 64) is higher than the nonworking-age population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)”. Indeed, when the proportion of the efficient working population is larger, the DD arises because more people have the capacity to be productive and contribute to economic growth.

What is pertinent to mention here is that not only the size of the working population but its share in the total population is also important. In economic terms, both the younger and the elderly require welfare investments and resources, while the working-age population is the only section able to generate resources and propel growth. Evenacountry havinga very large working-age population can set the stage for DD at the moment at which the country’s child population begins to decline.