Navigating a fractured global order: South Africa's role as a global pivot

IN 2025, as global trade fractures under $1.7 trillion in new tariffs and climate-related losses reach $600 billion annually, South Africa steps into the G20 presidency.

- NOMVULA ZELDAH MABUZA

It does so not as a bystander, but as a pivotal actor in rebalancing an increasingly fractured multipolar world. With economic uncertainty, geopolitical polarisation and climate volatility redefining global relationships, South Africa's presidency could shape the terms of engagement for a new development compact.

The global economy is entering a prolonged and disruptive transition.

The United States faces unsustainable debt dynamics, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 122% and a budget deficit expected to reach 7% by 2030.

Its rising tariffs on Chinese goods and intensifying rhetoric are pushing the global economy into a state of strategic decoupling. The resulting trade fragmentation, coupled with retaliatory measures, has triggered significant volatility across supply chains, capital flows and energy prices. Brent crude remains elevated, while global borrowing costs continue to climb.

In parallel, artificial intelligence is advancing faster than regulatory frameworks can adapt. McKinsey estimates that 30% of global jobs face automation by 2030, with uneven impacts across the Global South.

Meanwhile, climate shocks have become an annual economic drain, with the International Monetary Fund reporting $1 trillion in global losses linked to extreme weather.

These overlapping pressures are not only reshaping the geopolitical map, but also redefining the social contract between governments and citizens.

At a time when multilateralism is under strain and traditional leadership vacuums widen, the importance of credible, pragmatic and representative voices on the global stage has never been greater.

Amid these systemic pressures, traditional institutions are losing traction. Many global governance frameworks remain stuck in a post-war logic, unfit for the complex, digitally driven and climate-constrained world that has emerged.