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La Niña vs El Niño: How SA's stormy skies could give way to drought soon

January 05, 2026

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The Star

SOUTH Africa is entering a volatile weather period shaped by La Niña and a potential switch to El Niño, with major implications for agriculture, water security and disaster preparedness.

- NICOLA MAWSON

This comes as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) this weekend issued a severe weather alert.

SAWS issued an Orange Level 5 warning for extreme thunderstorms over the eastern Free State, eastern North West, Gauteng, western Limpopo, and the Highveld of Mpumalanga. Heavy downpours and strong damaging winds are expected to cause flooding of roads, settlements and low-lying areas, as well as damage to infrastructure.

A Yellow Level 2 warning covers the extreme northeastern Northern Cape, western Free State and North West, western KwaZulu-Natal, and the escarpments of Mpumalanga and Limpopo.

Here, thunderstorms are likely to bring localised flooding and damage, particularly on vulnerable roads, bridges and low-lying areas.

Other forecasts from the SAWS indicate above-normal rainfall across summer rainfall regions through February, which could boost soil moisture.

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