Top global risks in 2025

Over the years, I have developed good relations with a wide range of think tanks in Washington, D.C. But one that I particularly look forward to receiving information from is Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer, who has become a personal friend.

- AMBASSADOR B. ROMUALDEZ

Although this year is "looking extraordinary" when seen from a "certain perspective," Ian tells us that despite certain encouraging developments—such as the prospect of negotiations and even a possible ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, the diminishing violence in Gaza and beyond, and a hotly contested presidential election that resulted in an "undisputed winner with a clear mandate"—a closer look shows that the world has "big problems."

A "community of nations" is "the stuff of fairy tales, with governance that isn't meeting the needs of citizens. Our challenges are global, whether those related to climate, technology, the economy or national security," the political scientist and New York Times bestselling author asserts.

Certainly, it is lamentable that "we are heading back to the law of the jungle," seeing a world where "the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over," he stresses.

Ian puts a spotlight on the U.S. and China, saying these "two most powerful countries in the world" are assertively rejecting responsibility for the rest of the planet as they focus inward on the enemies first and foremost within their own borders, increasingly worrying over threats to their own stability.

Based on Ian's analysis, the biggest global risk for 2025 is the emergence of a "G-Zero World," an era when "no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. That global deficit is growing critically dangerous."