Metrobank sees BSP rate cuts in Q4

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to start cutting interest rates in the fourth quarter and maintain a restrictive policy environment for the most part this year amid upside risks to inflation.

- KEISHA TA-ASAN

In its latest bulletin, Metrobank Research and Market Strategy Department upside risks to inflation remain due to still-elevated food prices and rising geopolitical risks, which could lead to new supply shocks.

"In line with the BSP's guidance, we forecast domestic headline inflation to peak in July, which in turn would only be observable in early August," the Ty-led bank said.

"This supports our view that the BSP will start its easing cycle in the fourth quarter, rather than the third quarter, when inflation expectations have settled well within the BSP's two to four percent range," Metrobank added.