يحاول ذهب - حر
J.P. Morgan paints rosy picture for Phl economy
September 21, 2025
|The Philippine Star
Global investment bank J.P. Morgan expects the Philippine economy to expand by 5.3 percent this year and five percent in 2026, outpacing most of its Southeast Asian peers amid headwinds from global trade tensions and shifting monetary policy in the United States.
In an interview with The STAR, J.P. Morgan ASEAN equity strategist Khoi Vu said the Philippines' relatively low dependence on exports makes it more resilient to external shocks compared to neighbors such as Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore, where exports account for as much as 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Vu said that several Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies are highly exposed to exports, making them vulnerable to US trade policy and tariffs from an external perspective.
"By contrast, the Philippines' export-to-GDP ratio is much lower, so the economy is relatively insulated. We are forecasting a GDP growth of 5.3 percent this year and around five percent next year, which is more resilient than peers."
Vu noted that consumption and private investment will be the main growth drivers, supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment.
Jeanette Yutan, J.P. Morgan's Philippines head of research, explained that their GDP forecast already takes into account the potential drag from reciprocal tariffs.
"If those effects are delayed or smaller than expected, then 5.3 percent could move up closer to 5.5 percent," she said during the same interview.
The Philippine economy grew by 5.5 percent in the second quarter, bringing the first half average to 5.4 percent. The government is targeting a slightly higher growth rate of 5.5 to 6.5 percent this year.
Yutan stressed that upside risks exist, but much would depend on fiscal spending and the country's ability to attract foreign direct investments.
هذه القصة من طبعة September 21, 2025 من The Philippine Star.
اشترك في Magzter GOLD للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة، وأكثر من 9000 مجلة وصحيفة.
هل أنت مشترك بالفعل؟ تسجيل الدخول
المزيد من القصص من The Philippine Star
The Philippine Star
LOPE LIM & REGINE SOPHIA TORRES RAISE THE BARRE
The ease and grace of the body’s movement; the elegant anatomical lines that move to the rhythm, the clean execution of a step accentuating a dance phrase...
5 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Fuel price spike seen amid war on Iran
Domestic pump prices could surge beyond initial estimates this week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following the joint assault by the United States and Israel on Iran, experts have warned.
1 min
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Tropical cyclone seen to enter Phl this month
A tropical cyclone is expected to form and make landfall in the country this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said yesterday.
1 min
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Feb inflation seen picking up anew
Headline inflation likely accelerated in February from January's two percent print, with economists pointing to higher rice, fuel and utility costs as key drivers, although estimates suggest price growth remained within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)'s target range.
3 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
'Always be prepared'
Given all the \"signs,\" it seems that the world is fast approaching a situation reminiscent of events and behaviors that led to World War 2.
3 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Iran's supreme leader killed in US-Israel attack
Defense, military chiefs also killed
4 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Aktor PH's Dingdong Dantes, Iza Calzado lead induction of new SPEED officers
The Society of Philippine Entertainment Editors (SPEED) successfully inducted its newly elected officers during an induction and recognition ceremony held Tuesday at the Bayanihan Center ng Unilab in Pasig City.
2 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Get back! SEC's 'long and winding road' to Mica Tan
Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are probably rocking to a 1969 Beatles hit whenever Maria Francesca Tan (MFT) Group of Companies and Foundry Ventures come to mind.
4 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
'Phl can weather impact of Middle East conflict'
Escalating tensions in the Middle East are likely to have a temporary, modest impact on the Philippine economy, Finance Secretary Frederick Go said yesterday.
4 mins
March 02, 2026
The Philippine Star
Tourist draws
There are Filipinos, mostly millennials and Gen Zs, who readily blow a month's salary or school allowance on trips overseas just to watch K-pop bands.
4 mins
March 02, 2026
Listen
Translate
Change font size

