There'll be a steep penalty for breaking Labour's tax pledge, but the price may have to be paid

So, 2p or not 2p? That is the question.

- Andrew Rawnsley

The government is in a Hamlet-like state of psychological turmoil about whether Rachel Reeves should put up the basic rate of income tax. One minister describes it as "the big strategic call of this parliament". It is definitely the hairiest decision to be made about the budget - and one that can only be made with the agreement of Sir Keir Starmer. Some Labour people tremble that breaking the party's signature pledge not to touch income tax will be the terminal move that destroys what remains of the credibility of both the chancellor and the prime minister. Others in the ministerial ranks make the counterintuitive case that "tearing off the sticking plaster", as one put it to me, offers the only hope of escape from the agonising briar patch in which the government squirms. While I'm authoritatively told that no final decision has been taken, it is certainly the topic of lively discussion.