Economists don't have crystal balls, more like snow globes – and they're all shook up

This year's Nobel prize winners in economics were celebrated for their work on how countries achieve sustained growth through technological progress and creative destruction.

- Tim Leunig

The winners - Joel Mokyr, who I have known since I was a graduate student, Philippe Aghion, who taught me when I was a graduate student, and Peter Howitt are all fine economists and worthy winners.

And yet for all we economists know more than ever about sustained economic growth, there is less growth in developed and developing countries than ever before. That is particularly true in Britain, where productivity growth has been flat for approaching 20 years. We have become the new Japan, perhaps destined to grow old without the money to pay for that demographic change.

In part, we economists can be smug and say: "I told you so." We said Brexit would make the UK poorer, and that has happened. Treasury economists surely told the chancellor last year that if she both raised the minimum wage disproportionately for young people, and raised employers' national insurance contributions disproportionately for young people, employment rates for young people would fall. If they didn't, they need to examine their consciences, and their textbooks.