Unraveling the Geopolitical Game Playing Out in Syria

When news broke on December 8 on the sudden collapse of Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime, even veteran West Asian watchers were aghast.

- T K Vineeth @Kochi

For, Assad's abdication came barely 12 days after a motley mix of rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive against the powerful autocrat. Assad, who ruled the country with an iron fist for 24 years, was hitherto considered invincible. The last time he faced a real threat of being toppled was in 2011 at the height of 'Arab Spring' – a series of pro-democracy uprisings against autocratic Muslim regimes in west Asian and north African regions. But Assad crushed the unrest by unleashing a reign of terror on protesters, torturing and killing thousands, many of them civilians.

Russia and Iran supported him, offering political and military counterweight against the Western game to inject democracy by force. Russia, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, used its veto power to shield the Assad regime from sanctions. Iran's Shia theocratic regime entrusted Hezbollah to support Assad – who belongs to the minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam – to cling on to power in a Sunni-majority country. Given Assad's brutal control over the seat of power in his war-torn nation, experts found the news of a lightning rebel advancement resulting in his ouster a bit incredulous. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov put it: "What happened surprised the whole world, and we are no exception here."

24-year rule crumble in 12 days?