Ukraine Is Not An Easy Nut To Crack

This war is not about Russia and Ukraine as much as between Russia and NATO, which seeks to inflict a comprehensive strategic defeat on Moscow

- P S RAGHAVAN

The Donald Trump administration's shift in approach to the Russia-Ukraine war devastated many in the US liberal establishment. In Europe, it has provoked near-hysterical responses.

Openly defying Trump's policy line, European leaders rushed to reiterate their support for Ukraine, promise all assistance and outline grandiose plans to beef up Europe's defence capabilities.

The US change of direction should not have surprised world leaders. Since mid-2024, most analysts have recognised that the war was going badly for Ukraine and draining the West's resources. Trump himself made no secret of wanting to end the war, blaming President Joe Biden for letting it happen and President Volodymyr Zelenskys for exploiting him.

Europe's announcement to immediately support Ukraine militarily and economically needs a reality check. Taking the US security umbrella for granted, Europe has, for decades, under-invested in defence. The fragmentation of their defence industries has hampered military assistance to Ukraine, as French President Emmanuel Macron said: guns of different calibres, missiles that did not match and a lack of interoperability.

Budgetary outlays do not automatically translate into industrial capacity. The pace of implementation of Europe's "Readiness 2030" to transform it into a military-industrial powerhouse will depend on countries' commitment to subjugate their defence policies to the goal of an integrated European capability.

Therefore, talk of Europe substituting the US in support of Ukraine in the immediate term seems far-fetched.