Odinga’s exit redraws political lines in Kenya

ODM must rethink its way forward amid rising factionalism

- JOSEPH LISTER NYARINGO

THE PASSING of Raila Amolo Odinga has carved a profound chasm in Kenya's political topography.

In the aftermath, we can expect seismic tremors to reverberate through the political landscape, precipitating a paradigm shift that will recalibrate the contours of the current administration, redefine multiparty politics, and reshape the trajectory of the 2027 presidential election.

The late party leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was the linchpin that had held the two-decade-old party together. Even before the week-long national mourning period decreed by President William Ruto has elapsed, it is glaringly clear that Odinga's departure has unleashed a maelstrom of political uncertainty, rendering new realignments within the party an inevitability.

A potential merger between ODM and President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) appears imminent, judging by the pronouncements from proponents of the broad-based government during Odinga's burial. This development may even prompt the adoption of a new name that encompasses both ODM and UDA, a precedent that has been witnessed previously in Kenya's history of mergers and political coalition-building.

If this happens, it could completely neuter ODM's identity in the country as a distinct opposition voice. President Ruto has already expressed his desire to keep ODM in the ruling coalition, hinting at a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027 elections.

The recent development precipitated by the demise of ODM party leader Raila Odinga may galvanise certain ODM officials to defect from the party or challenge the proposed merger in court. Dissenting voices within ODM, including Governor James Orengo, Senators Edwin Sifuna and Geoffrey Osotsi, and MPs Caleb Amisi, Babu Owino, and Milly Odhiambo, may ultimately contest the merger through litigation, thereby potentially altering the party's trajectory.