UK enters ‘new era’ where deaths outnumber births

Warning of hit to living standards from population decline

- ALEX ROSS

The UK faces a “turning point” this year, with the number of deaths to outnumber births by ever-greater margins for the next 50 years, a think tank has predicted.

The impact, the Resolution Foundation said, will leave the country relying on immigration for population growth - just six months after the Office for National Statistics projected migration would drive a 5.9 per cent population increase by 2032.

But recent figures showing a fall in levels of migration to the UK, combined with the shift in ratio of births and deaths and rises in public spending, mean the think tank is warning of fewer people of working age, higher taxes and a more fragile political landscape.

In a statement to The Independent, Greg Thwaites, coauthor of the think tank’s report called New Year Outlook 2026, said: “[This year] could be a turning point year as deaths start to outnumber births so that, without immigration, the population would start to shrink.

“This may shift the conversation on migration away from arguments over whether the country is already ‘full’ and onto whether we want to address population decline. However, migration policy, and how much it should prioritise economic growth over other considerations, is likely to remain politically charged.”