Trump is panicking over the Supreme Court and tariffs

A ruling against the president over his economic weapon of choice would be humiliating

- Chris Blackhurst

The giveaway with Donald Trump is when he starts bleating. He likes to use his Truth Social platform to warn of something before it has actually happened, choosing, as ever, apocalyptic language and block capitals. It is a sign that he is nervy and unsettled; that he is not getting his way.

So it is with the imminent US Supreme Court decision on his tariff regime. “WE’RE SCREWED,” he wrote, saying it would be a “complete mess” if the judges went against his strategy. Businesses may be able to claim refunds, fuelling Trump’s further unease: “It would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about. And even, who, when and where, to pay.”

What is under consideration, at the behest of a clutch of small businesses and some US states, is the legality of Trump’s “emergency” tariffs - the ones imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, and proclaimed on “liberation day”.

They also cover the anti-fentanyl measures levied on Canada, Mexico and China. Excluded are those that were justified on grounds of “national security”, such as steel and aluminium, or those that were in response to deemed unfair foreign practices. Nor is the court opining on the charges that came in after “liberation day”, via subsequent trade deals.

It still represents around half of his new tariffs. If his administration was ordered to pay back, the hit would be a not inconsiderable $130bn. More importantly, the blow to the president’s majesty would be enormous.