More boots on the ground may not follow budget boost

Francis Tusa analyses whether ‘black holes’ will swallow the funding increase or if Britain can afford to grow the army

- Francis Tusa

The defence secretary, John Healey, looked confident, relaxed and assured when he gave a short speech at the Institute for Government last week. In retrospect, it seems highly likely he already knew that he had won the battle for increased defence spending. A week later, the prime minister confirmed not only that defence spending would reach the totemic 2.5 per cent of GDP level earlier than planned (2026-27), but it would then head towards 3 per cent by 2033. Each and every year for the next few years, at least an extra £3bn will go to defence spending, taking the core budget from £54bn to around £66bn in under a decade.

What is absolutely certain: if you are in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) main building or any of the Service headquarters, seeing a commitment to £3bn-plus extra each year can only be seen as “good news” – it’s a far nicer place to be in than looking at battered and exhausted accounts, constantly scrabbling around for cash.

But there needs to be some careful thought about what this extra money is, what it can be used for, and what it will do as regards the shape and capabilities of the services, and UK defence as a whole. In the immediate aftermath of the defence budget increase, there has been an online boom in people “prespending” the extra cash, seeing pet programmes as now being funded. If only life were that simple. There is no defence cashand-carry warehouse where you can load up pallets of ships, fighters or tanks, pay for them and walk off.