Fossil fuel emissions to hit record level in 2022

Carbon emissions from fossil fuels will hit record levels this year, according to a comprehensive analysis. The finding further emphasises the need to cut emissions by half by 2030 to restrict global heating to 1.5C and avoid the most devastating impacts of the climate crisis.

- Damian Carrington

There is no sign of the decline needed, researchers said, heaping further pressure on the countries whose representatives are meeting at the UN Cop27 climate summit in Egypt to deliver real and rapid action. Other scientists described the news as “bleak” and “deeply depressing”.

A glimmer of hope comes from assessment of emissions from the destruction of forests. These have been declining slowly over the past two decades, though largely because of more trees being planted rather than fewer being felled.

When this decline is taken into account, carbon emissions have been essentially flat since 2015. However, until emissions actually start falling, huge amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide are still being pumped into the atmosphere every year.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has made clear to world leaders at Cop27 this week what this means: “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing. Our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible . We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator ,” he said.

The analysis by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) uses multiple streams of data from the year to date to estimate emissions for 2022. It found fossil-fuel-related CO2 is on course to rise by 1% to 36.6 bn tonnes, the highest ever. More burning of oil products is the biggest contributor, mostly because of the continuing rebound of aviation after the pandemic.