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British AI beats human experts in contest to predict future

September 20, 2025

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The Guardian

An artificial intelligence system has beaten scores of forecasting enthusiasts, including several professionals, in a contest to predict events ranging from bust-ups between Donald Trump and Elon Musk to Kemi Badenoch being removed from the Conservative party leadership.

- Robert Booth UK technology editor

A British AI startup, co-founded by a former Google DeepMind researcher, ranked in the top 10 of an international forecasting competition that required entrants to forecast the likelihood of 60 events over the summer.

ManticAI came eighth in the Metaculus Cup, run by a San Francisco-based forecasting company that tries to predict the future for investment funds and corporations. The AIs still lag behind the best human forecasters, but it has left some believing AIs could outstrip humans sooner than most expected.

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