Two more years of war warns head of Wagner group

The boss of the Russian mercenary Wagner group said it could take Russia two years to seize the east of Ukraine in a rare interview that suggests at least some key figures in Moscow are gearing up for a protracted conflict.

- Luke Harding and Dan Sabbagh

Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has emerged to become a high-profile figure, suggested Russia’s focus was on capturing the rest of the Donbas region it has not occupied since the war began nearly a year ago.

Doing so would take “about one and half to two more years of work”, the ally of president Vladimir Putin said. If the goal was to occupy all of the Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River, this would “take about three years”, he said.

Ukrainian officials expect an imminent Russian onslaught, possibly before the first anniversary of the start of the war on 24 February, although a renewed advance on the capital, Kyiv, is not thought likely after an advance failed badly last year.

One scenario, in line with Prig ozhin’s comments, would involve Russian troops trying to encircle Ukraine’s eastern army from the north and south, with tank columns crossing the border in the direction of Sumy and Poltava, and advancing simultaneously from the occupied southern Zaporizhzhia region.

Prigozhin founded the Wagner group, a private military company, in 2014, but did not admit this until last September. Known as “Putin’s chef”, he has a catering business that hosts dinners attended by the president.

Wagner operates as a Kremlinsanctioned rival to Russia’s defence ministry and has been given responsibility for capturing the Donbas city of Bakhmut in a battle that has cost thousands of lives over several months.

Speaking to a Russian blogger, Prigozhin said Wagner troops were making gradual progress in Bakhmut but acknowledged that Russian solders had not yet been able to capture it in some of the fiercest fighting since the start of the war.