Tough talk Ceasefire with Lebanon makes peace in Gaza less likely

Joe Biden has revived diplomatic efforts to achieve a truce in Gaza with the hope of building on momentum generated by the newly agreed but now seemingly shaky ceasefire in Lebanon.

- Julian Borger

There are doubts, however, that such momentum exists outside the Biden administration, which is anxious to use its last few weeks to salvage scraps of diplomatic honour after the bloody past 14 months in the Middle East.

The national security adviser Jake Sullivan said last Wednesday that the president had ordered his envoys to contact Turkey, Qatar, Egypt "and other actors in the region" to restart talks on Gaza, 18 days after Qatar publicly withdrew from its mediating role.

There is no evidence that either side has changed its position as a result of the Lebanon deal. On the contrary, the ceasefire in Lebanon arguably makes it less likely that an agreement can be struck in Gaza, for domestic political reasons in Israel. The hard right hawks who resisted a truce on the northern border are likely to double down on their insistence of "total victory" in Gaza.

Hamas said last Wednesday it was ready for a deal based on terms previously agreed, which it listed as an Israeli withdrawal, the return of displaced people to northern Gaza and an exchange of Palestinian detainees for Hamas-held Israeli hostages.