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Taxing times Reeves can only balance her books with tricky moves

February 21, 2025

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The Guardian Weekly

When Rachel Reeves stood up in the Commons on budget day on 30 October as Britain's first woman chancellor, she was brimming with pride: "To girls and young women everywhere, I say: let there be no ceiling on your ambition, your hopes and your dreams."

- Toby Helm and Phillip Inman

Taxing times Reeves can only balance her books with tricky moves

Four months on, however, there are few at Westminster who would envy Reeves's lot in charge of the country's finances.

Things, broadly speaking, have not gone to plan for Reeves since the end of October, at home or abroad.

Growth has stalled - the Bank of England said earlier this month that it had reduced its growth forecast from the 1.5% it was expecting in November to 0.75% - and borrowing costs have risen.

This has meant less money in to the exchequer in taxation and more heading out of it to finance the government's huge debt.

In this double-negative scenario, bond markets have suffered bouts of jitters (though not quite Liz Truss style), putting everyone, including the Treasury, on edge.

The £9.9bn ($12.5bn) of headroom, or spare money, which Reeves had left in the system to keep within her own "iron-clad" fiscal rules (which say she must pay for day-to-day expenses out of taxation) will, in all probability, have disappeared when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reports ahead of her spring statement at the end of next month and lowers its forecasts again. Something has to give and soon.

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