'Inevitable' Kyiv bullish about third attempt on Kerch bridge

In the biggest Ukrainian onslaught inside Russian territory since Vladimir Putin's fullscale invasion two years ago, Ukraine has in recent weeks carried out a series of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports. On 2 April, it hit a refinery and drone factory in the industrial region of Tatarstan - more than 1,300km from the border.

- Luke Harding

The Ukrainian spy agency behind these drone strikes has its eyes on another target: the 20km-long Kerch bridge connecting occupied Crimea with Russia. Senior officials from Ukraine's HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is "inevitable".

For Putin, the bridge is a tangible reminder of what he sees as one of his greatest political achievements: the peninsula's 2014 "return" to Russia using undercover Russian troops and a sham referendum. For Kyiv, the bridge is a hated symbol of the Kremlin's illegal annexation. Its destruction would strengthen Ukraine's campaign to liberate Crimea and raise morale on and off the battlefield, where Kyiv's forces are gradually being pushed back.

There are serious doubts about whether the HUR is capable of pulling off a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening anti-aircraft defences and deploying a "target barge" as a decoy for incoming guided missiles.