Floods, forecasts and fatal gaps

FOLLOWING the devastating April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal, the recent flooding in Limpopo and Mpumalanga underscores a recurring, fatal flaw in the national disaster response, which is a critical gap between scientific warning and effective community action.

- KAREN SINGH and ZAINUL DAWOOD

For experts, the problem extends beyond meteorology. It’s a systemic failure rooted in inadequate warning dissemination, lack of preparedness for early action, and deep-seated social challenges like poverty and informal settlements. Collectively, these factors are turning extreme weather into large-scale humanitarian crises.

"This is why we need an integrated approach, not just focused on early warning but also building preparedness for early action, community-based warning for better dissemination, and climate-sensitive spatial planning to ensure that people are not in harm’s way," said Professor Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi, a climate change expert from the University of KwaZulu-Natal.

Mabhaudhi, who is also the director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), noted that social vulnerability is a major accelerator of disaster.

"Poverty, unemployment, and inequality accentuate vulnerabilities," he explained. "People in these circumstances have low adaptive capacity and often live in poorly constructed homes and low-lying areas, in the case of informal settlements. This exposes them to the risk of floods, while the low adaptive capacity makes them highly vulnerable."

The crisis is compounded by a disconnect between planning and physical reality, particularly in rapidly developing provinces like Limpopo.