A pivotal year for Africa's political stability and economic growth

WHILE economic projections point to modest growth in Africa for 2026, ongoing governance deficits, armed conflict, climate shocks and rising debt levels will continue to weigh heavily on the fate and fortune of many countries on the continent.

- KIM HELLER

The African Development Bank forecasts that Africa’s economy will grow by 4.3% in 2026. This is marginally up from the 4.2% growth in 2025. This growth is expected to vary across regions and is highly susceptible to security, political, economic and climate shocks.

Across Africa, many governments will continue to face pressure from their citizens to address unaffordable living costs, raised unemployment rates, and degenerating public infrastructure and services.

Confidence in political institutions has plunged, raising concerns about the quality and outlook of democracy and elections on the continent. The 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer found that in several African countries, the government is the least trusted institution.

Poor management of economies, country security, government corruption and elite transitions have failed to deliver a quality brand of people’s power. If this is not resolved, protest action could spiral in 2026, especially among the youth. If conflicts are not resolved and sustainable peace plans are not implemented, the continent will deteriorate into a geography of titanic displacement.

Political tensions are expected to mount in 2026 as several countries prepare for electoral battles. Uganda’s elections are scheduled for mid-January 2026. President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for 40 years, is expected to compete for his seventh term in what is likely to be a controlled, policed and repressive electoral buildup.

In Ethiopia, general elections are scheduled for June 2026. Current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is expected to retain power in a country marked by internal conflict, especially in the Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions, high unemployment and increasing food insecurity.