UK tax burden 'heading to uncharted territory' – OBR

THE historically high tax burden could be stifling growth, a senior member of the budget watchdog has warned.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) slashed its growth forecast for 2026 but has signalled modest improvements in 2027 and 2028.

But David Miles, a member of the OBR's budget responsibility committee, said there was uncertainty because the tax burden was moving into "uncharted territory".

The tax burden, or tax take, is a measure of how much the Government collects in taxation, expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the size of the economy.

The burden is forecast to be 36.3% in 2025/26, unchanged from the previous forecast, then rise in every successive year to reach 38.5% in 2030/31, above the previous forecast of 38.3%. This is the highest level since current records began in 1948.