Resource Diplomacy

Resource competition has long underpinned international relations. But it seems to be taking center stage again, much like the nineteenth-century Scramble for Africa or Western grabs for Middle Eastern oil in the last century.

- Daniel Litvin

As demand rises for the critical minerals that power the industries of the future, many countries are rushing to gain an edge. The United States recently struck a high-profile minerals deal with Ukraine, which, for its part, wants to prevent a further hemorrhaging of US support for its war with Russia. US President Donald Trump has also talked of acquiring Greenland partly because of its potential mineral wealth, while his administration is negotiating deals with other mineral-rich countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Moreover, natural resources are increasingly being wielded as a foreign-policy weapon. In 2022, after Europe sanctioned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin scaled back gas exports to the continent. And in the past few months, China has restricted exports of rare-earth elements as part of its trade war with the US, while India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, following a terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir. And the conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns among Israel's Western allies that Iran could disrupt shipments of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Control of oil and gas flows has long shaped geopolitics, but critical minerals have lately taken on new importance because escalating geopolitical tensions are accelerating efforts to bolster defense capabilities and shifting the AI race into high gear, all while the global clean-energy transition continues apace. Constructing new missiles, data centers, and electricity grids requires enormous amounts of metals and minerals, such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. In an increasingly divided world where China dominates the refining and processing of many of these critical minerals, many countries understandably fear losing access to them.