Consumption-driven import surge

India is in a gold loop. Swiss refineries and Indian consumers are weakening the rupee. The country’s import appetite now threatens its macroeconomic stability.

- Shivaji Sarkar

India’s external vulnerability widens with gold, gadgets and a slipping rupee. The newly ratified India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement is expected to deepen trade and investment ties with Switzerland. Yet the irony is stark: India’s exports to Switzerland remain negligible. In 2024-25, India exported barely $1.51 billion worth of goods to Switzerland while importing $22.4 billion, generating one of its most lopsided bilateral trade deficits. The imbalance is driven almost entirely by gold, which forms the overwhelming bulk of Swiss exports to India. Over the last four years, trade with Switzerland has grown at a modest CAGR of 4.62%, but the structure remains fundamentally skewed, reflecting a high-value, high-dependency import pattern and minimal Indian presence in Swiss markets.